WEEKLY REVIEW: WEEK 1 OF OCTOBER 2015

ENTRY RULES:

1. Is there a pattern on 4HR?
2. Is there a sub-pattern on 1HR?
3. What does the stochastic on 1HR signal?
4. Where is the closest support or resistance to my entry? -- and others?
5. Is there a swing high or swing low for SL (max 40)?
6. Set a trailing stop which is equivalent to my SL

EXIT RULES:

1.Did my target get hit?
2.Did a Market Structure (Low or High) form on any of the reversal levels?
3. What does stochastic signal?


My reviews will evolve around whether or not I took these rules into consideration before and after my trades. Also, they will reflect my emotions during and after each execution.

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SHORT: FIBONACCI CLUSTER ON USDJPY

With this position, I finally marked my return to the Forex world having weathered some school works. The set up had all the markings of a fine pattern: confluence between 4-Hour trend line and the Fibonacci Cluster, and Bearish divergence from Stochastic. However, I was relunctant to go Short by the fact that 1-Hour trend (thin black trend line) which is supposed to form a cluster with the 4-Hour trend line (thick black line) is somewhat a horizontal line. I had never experienced something like that. That singular reason almost put me off.



But with the divergence and reversal bars on confluence, I thought I had enough fire power to push price down. Perhaps, that's to be in another time as price broke through the confluence. I kept my calm. I knew if there was any level that could stop price from getting to my Stop Loss, the 1-Hour trendline which was almost horizontal, will be that level. As it turned out, price formed Dojis on that level and finally reached high to stop me out.

I do not suppose I have done really bad in this trade. However, the question still remains that whether or not I  would make the same decision if this situation were to occur in the future.


LONG: FIBONACCI CLUSTER ON EURUSD

Taking a trade when liquidity was at its lowest wasn't the best of ideas but that showcased how much I was sure price would rally. I even predicted rightly the most likable way price would act before rallying. It did rally and broke through boundaries. It didn't get to my Target but I exited before it started to decline -- I have Stochastic to thank for that as it signaled a bearish divergence. As beautiful as it all turned out to be, I flawed in that I didn't realize I should pop up the Fibonacci tools not until price had rallied well enough. It could have been bad but luckily it wasn't.

Looking back at this trade (my composure before and during the trade, and ultimately, how it turned out), it gladdens me.


SELL: BEARISH FLAG ON GBPUSD

I had professed that this was a perfect trade -- yes, it was -- until I was stopped out. The parameters correlate with different instances in the past wherein I traded Flags (Bearish and Bullish). I was almost certain of its outcome.

When price stopped me out, I was in awe. Being a person that tries as much as possible to explain price action technically, not finding an explanation as to why price did what it did compounded my situation.

SELL: DESCENDING TRIANGLE ON USDCHF

When price bounced off the cluster with a bearish divergence, it was clear to me what I had to do. I had everything planned out. I even confessed my doubt regarding whether price could break through the cluster. Yet, I set my Target below the support based on emperical reasonings; and though price bounced off the cluster, and I was left with almost as much as I risked, I take solace in that I followed my plans.

Eventually, after I had been stopped out of the trade to make-do with 34 pips, price declined to my target. Knowing this makes me reason if it would have been wise to have bent the rule slightly; perhaps, I would have bagged the entire pips.
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About Moshow

Oseni Moshood ( Moshow) is a physicist, a blogger and a spot trader with years of experience. He trades only price actions partly because he thinks Economics is boring; or, probably because he failed Economics; and he loves fine artistic works.
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