SELL GBPUSD: FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT-EXPANSION CLUSTER IN CONFLUENCE WITH BEARISH FLAG (Closed)



I wanted more. I doubt that I misguided my hopes because I did everything well: from entry to target, I did fine. Even though price formed reversal bars (and bullish divergence) and I foresaw price reversing from one of my marked-out significant levels, I earnestly wished they never happened. I suppose that was my only flaw while managing this trade because I was reluctant to exit even after this development.It cost me a few pips before I exited though in profit.

It was a down trend on 4-hour time. Price threaded upward after an earlier downward move which created grounds for Fibonacci retracement and Expansion cluster to flourish. Fibonacci retracement tool was drawn from swing "1" to swing "2"; while Fibonacci expansion tool was drawn from swing "2" to swing "3" and then to swing "4" -  Fibonacci retracement-expansion formed as a result. The region covered by the green lines is the cluster and its a reversal zone.

On 1-hour time frame, bearish flag formed. Considering how highly I regard flags, my confidence in this setup brimmed.

Price had bounced after testing the confluence between the cluster and resistant side of the flag, and ranged sideways with series of reversal candle stick patterns. I went short at 1.5120, stop loss at 1.5158 ( 38 pips - above the most recent swing high), and target at 1.5020 (100 pips - below the most recent swing low).

Levels 1.5070 and 1.5036 are support levels that can bounce price against my position.

EVENTUALLY



The long awaited decline happened. It was an easy trade as I didn't have to do much than wait. However, the emotional test came when I had to decide between exiting or holding on to the trade. Bullish divergence (note line on Stochastic) had formed and going by my exit rule, I should have exited but I felt (I never liked using the word "feel" whenever Forex is concerned) price would decline further - so I lingered. I lost about 10 pips before I exited.

It was a good thing I exited because price rallied past my entry.


Profit/Loss: + 23 pips
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About Moshow

Oseni Moshood ( Moshow) is a physicist, a blogger and a spot trader with years of experience. He trades only price actions partly because he thinks Economics is boring; or, probably because he failed Economics; and he loves fine artistic works.
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